V-Lab
& Do Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
100.40
decreased by 0.62
1 Week
100.71
decreased by 0.31
1 Month
84.05
decreased by 16.97
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2015 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9794 | 6.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.1329 | 12.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8577 | 79.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0235 | -2.57** |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9794 | 6.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1329 | 12.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8577 | 79.78*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0235 | -2.57** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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