V-Lab
K-Auction Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
100.44
decreased by 30.94
1 Week
130.29
decreased by 1.09
1 Month
114.90
decreased by 16.48
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4848 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2895 | 7.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6750 | 22.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1243 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
19 days
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