V-Lab
CITIC Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
2.16
decreased by 0.39
1 Week
2.86
increased by 0.31
1 Month
2.92
increased by 0.37
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9024 | 0.13 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1908 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8092 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.1041 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.1961 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.6780 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -0.6505 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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