CITIC Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
3.15
decreased by 0.24
1 Week
3.01
decreased by 0.38
1 Month
2.79
decreased by 0.60
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9123 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1914 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8086 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0998 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.2050 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.6836 | 0.02 |
| γ4 | -0.6474 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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