Placo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,725.58
increased by 1,165.98
1 Week
3,977.31
increased by 417.71
1 Month
3,334.09
decreased by 225.51
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 02:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 405 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0955 | 5.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1102 | 11.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8881 | 99.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2246 | 0.79 |
| γ2 | -0.7717 | -2.02** |
| γ3 | 1.1512 | 5.37*** |
| γ4 | -1.0363 | -4.14*** |
| γ5 | 0.5567 | 2.67*** |
| γ6 | -0.1573 | -1.07 |
| γ7 | 0.1724 | 0.94 |
| γ8 | -0.1208 | -0.60 |
| γ9 | -0.3710 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
405 days
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