V-Lab
Placo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
2,794.01
decreased by 292.03
1 Week
3,147.18
increased by 61.14
1 Month
3,678.72
increased by 592.68
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5739 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1027 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8973 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.1054 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.2476 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 0.2091 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -0.1019 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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