V-Lab
Placo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
3,951.51
increased by 29.53
1 Week
3,890.02
decreased by 31.96
1 Month
3,937.61
increased by 15.63
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 12:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 407 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0895 | 5.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1100 | 11.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8883 | 99.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2211 | 0.78 |
| γ2 | -0.7619 | -2.00** |
| γ3 | 1.1347 | 5.38*** |
| γ4 | -1.0208 | -4.14*** |
| γ5 | 0.5518 | 2.65*** |
| γ6 | -0.1548 | -1.06 |
| γ7 | 0.1652 | 0.93 |
| γ8 | -0.1159 | -0.59 |
| γ9 | -0.3870 | -1.48 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
407 days
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