Placo Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
1,732.24
decreased by 207.57
1 Week
2,016.47
increased by 76.66
1 Month
2,479.03
increased by 539.22
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 1995 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 308 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~308 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1537 | 5.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1094 | 11.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8884 | 99.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.3013 | 1.30 |
| γ2 | -0.8589 | -2.66*** |
| γ3 | 1.1361 | 5.75*** |
| γ4 | -0.9919 | -4.21*** |
| γ5 | 0.5364 | 2.58*** |
| γ6 | -0.1426 | -1.00 |
| γ7 | 0.1393 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | -0.0923 | -0.49 |
| γ9 | -0.4380 | -1.59 |
0.998
Persistence308d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1537 | 5.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1094 | 11.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8884 | 99.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.3013 | 1.30 |
| γ2 | -0.8589 | -2.66*** |
| γ3 | 1.1361 | 5.75*** |
| γ4 | -0.9919 | -4.21*** |
| γ5 | 0.5364 | 2.58*** |
| γ6 | -0.1426 | -1.00 |
| γ7 | 0.1393 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | -0.0923 | -0.49 |
| γ9 | -0.4380 | -1.59 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
308 days
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