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Ashika Global Securities Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

66.81

decreased by 7.97

1 Week

78.05

increased by 3.27

1 Month

154.33

increased by 79.55

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.3109
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2656
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7344
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-2.5913
0.00
γ22.7627
0.00
γ32.1315
0.00
γ4-7.8366
0.00
γ514.7659
0.00
γ6-18.9517
-0.01
γ715.7841
0.02
γ8-10.8519
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

99021 days