V-Lab
Ashika Global Securities Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
118.31
increased by 10.11
1 Week
110.55
increased by 2.35
1 Month
133.61
increased by 25.41
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 8, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.4220 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2625 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7375 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -2.4755 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 2.5149 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.4043 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -9.2676 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | 19.1122 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | -26.7307 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | 24.5842 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -13.6297 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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