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Ashika Global Securities Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

1,210.23

decreased by 15.90

1 Week

1,185.72

decreased by 40.41

1 Month

470.35

decreased by 755.78

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ashika Global Securities Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 8, 2013 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

7.8850
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2470
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7530
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-3.4666
0.00
γ23.8310
0.00
γ31.2185
0.00
γ4-2.9986
0.00
γ5-9.0631
0.00
γ633.6996
0.00
γ7-37.6772
0.00
γ816.1834
0.00
γ9-2.2714
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

115524 days