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Guangzhou Development Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

73.31

decreased by 2.63

1 Week

78.59

increased by 2.65

1 Month

106.81

increased by 30.87

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangzhou Development Group Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 779 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6774
3.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2372
22.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7619
73.14***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.1170
0.87
γ2-0.0379
-0.18
γ3-0.5256
-4.79***
γ40.9857
15.80***
γ5-0.8758
-12.60***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

779 days