V-Lab
Guangzhou Development Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
73.31
decreased by 2.63
1 Week
78.59
increased by 2.65
1 Month
106.81
increased by 30.87
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 06:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 779 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6774 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2372 | 22.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7619 | 73.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.1170 | 0.87 |
| γ2 | -0.0379 | -0.18 |
| γ3 | -0.5256 | -4.79*** |
| γ4 | 0.9857 | 15.80*** |
| γ5 | -0.8758 | -12.60*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
779 days
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