V-Lab
Guangzhou Development Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
65.28
decreased by 8.75
1 Week
84.13
increased by 10.10
1 Month
93.72
increased by 19.69
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 18, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 826 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6420 | 4.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2475 | 23.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7517 | 70.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.0407 | -2.05** |
| γ2 | 3.3318 | 2.46** |
| γ3 | -3.5224 | -2.37** |
| γ4 | 0.9146 | 1.17 |
| γ5 | 0.6267 | 2.65*** |
| γ6 | -0.2757 | -2.19** |
| γ7 | -0.1631 | -1.65* |
| γ8 | 0.2677 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
826 days
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