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Guangzhou Development Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

65.28

decreased by 8.75

1 Week

84.13

increased by 10.10

1 Month

93.72

increased by 19.69

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 06:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Guangzhou Development Group Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 18, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 826 trading days (~3.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6420
4.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2475
23.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7517
70.20***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.0407
-2.05**
γ23.3318
2.46**
γ3-3.5224
-2.37**
γ40.9146
1.17
γ50.6267
2.65***
γ6-0.2757
-2.19**
γ7-0.1631
-1.65*
γ80.2677
1.95*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

826 days