V-Lab
Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
862.29
decreased by 83.12
1 Week
989.82
increased by 44.41
1 Month
955.66
increased by 10.25
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1998 | 5.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1506 | 3.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8261 | 18.01*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3840 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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