V-Lab
Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
1,034.39
decreased by 47.01
1 Week
1,034.22
decreased by 47.18
1 Month
1,012.12
decreased by 69.28
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1928 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1569 | 3.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8201 | 16.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2239 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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