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Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

1,034.39

decreased by 47.01

1 Week

1,034.22

decreased by 47.18

1 Month

1,012.12

decreased by 69.28

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Nanshan Aluminium Internatio ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2025 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1928
4.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1569
3.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8201
16.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.2239
0.17

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days