V-Lab
Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
916.38
decreased by 124.31
1 Week
1,031.36
decreased by 9.33
1 Month
997.72
decreased by 42.97
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 30 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1928 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1552 | 3.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8218 | 17.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2424 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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