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Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

892.43

decreased by 107.78

1 Week

991.93

decreased by 8.28

1 Month

1,007.10

increased by 6.89

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Nanshan Aluminium Internatio ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 867 trading days (~3.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 77% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1157
8.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8389
86.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0891
3.02***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

867 days