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Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

909.17

increased by 38.03

1 Week

967.21

increased by 96.07

1 Month

910.87

increased by 39.73

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Nanshan Aluminium Internatio ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 478 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.55
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1128
2.21**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8439
22.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0839
0.73

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

478 days