V-Lab
Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
909.17
increased by 38.03
1 Week
967.21
increased by 96.07
1 Month
910.87
increased by 39.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2025 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 478 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1128 | 2.21** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8439 | 22.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0839 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
478 days
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