V-Lab
Nanshan Aluminium Internatio Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
892.43
decreased by 107.78
1 Week
991.93
decreased by 8.28
1 Month
1,007.10
increased by 6.89
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 25, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 867 trading days (~3.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 77% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1157 | 8.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8389 | 86.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0891 | 3.02*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
867 days
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