V-Lab
Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington Glass Group Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
150,639.30
increased by 2,122.90
1 Week
153,208.02
increased by 4,691.62
1 Month
199,481.70
increased by 50,965.30
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0818 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9030 | 146.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0306 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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