V-Lab
Cynca Nordic AB Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
242.71
increased by 48.10
1 Week
290.86
increased by 96.25
1 Month
742.90
increased by 548.29
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0954 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7224 | 3.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3645 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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