V-Lab
Cynca Nordic AB Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
248.57
1 Week
255.37
1 Month
410.92
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 2008 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.0953 | 0.19 |
| βGARCH | 0.7223 | 0.97 |
| γleverage | 0.3647 | 0.10 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 0.19 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7223 | 0.97 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3647 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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