Skip to main content
V-Lab

Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

157,729.30

decreased by 22,711.00

1 Week

182,058.18

increased by 1,617.88

1 Month

288,430.05

increased by 107,989.75

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tongda Group Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 84% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
4.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1192
11.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8305
162.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1006
6.31***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days