V-Lab
Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
157,729.30
1 Week
182,058.18
1 Month
288,430.05
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 84% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1192 | 11.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8305 | 162.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1006 | 6.31*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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