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Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

280,838.70

decreased by 53,405.60

1 Week

398,376.28

increased by 64,131.98

1 Month

324,261.08

decreased by 9,983.22

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 04:52 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tongda Group Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 84% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
4.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1197
11.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8300
161.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1007
6.28***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-