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Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

573,339.70

increased by 223,986.70

1 Week

376,590.42

increased by 27,237.42

1 Month

429,147.00

increased by 79,794.00

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tongda Group Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5796
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1960
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8040
0.02
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.4495
0.00
γ2-0.3743
0.00
γ32.5319
0.03
γ4-4.4784
-0.02
γ55.0390
0.04
γ6-2.7759
-0.15
γ71.2168
0.00
γ8-1.0142
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

115524 days