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Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

419,219.20

decreased by 115,847.60

1 Week

629,603.06

increased by 94,536.26

1 Month

499,342.63

decreased by 35,724.17

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 04:52 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tongda Group Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2777
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2287
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7713
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ12.6389
γ2-4.9141
γ34.7981
γ4-5.8740
γ55.6245
γ6-3.6613
γ73.3903

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-