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Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

224,891.10

decreased by 39,666.80

1 Week

267,948.10

increased by 3,390.20

1 Month

316,124.54

increased by 51,566.64

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tongda Group Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 26, 2000 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7131
αARCH0.1638
βGARCH0.8362
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.5263
γ2-0.9207
γ30.6711

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7131
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1638
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8362
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.5263
γ2-0.9207
γ30.6711

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-