Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
338,700.40
decreased by 28,886.90
1 Week
402,575.20
increased by 34,987.90
1 Month
346,649.15
decreased by 20,938.15
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2000 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8327 | 0.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1926 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8074 | 0.03 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.6934 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -1.9138 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 1.6657 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 0.5639 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -4.6392 | -0.09 |
| γ6 | 7.1042 | 0.07 |
| γ7 | -4.2670 | -0.28 |
| γ8 | 1.3236 | 0.06 |
| γ9 | -0.2135 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -0.5436 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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