V-Lab
Tongda Group Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
573,339.70
increased by 223,986.70
1 Week
376,590.42
increased by 27,237.42
1 Month
429,147.00
increased by 79,794.00
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 09:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 26, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5796 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1960 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8040 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.4495 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.3743 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 2.5319 | 0.03 |
| γ4 | -4.4784 | -0.02 |
| γ5 | 5.0390 | 0.04 |
| γ6 | -2.7759 | -0.15 |
| γ7 | 1.2168 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -1.0142 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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