V-Lab
Yamashin-Filter Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
77.27
increased by 16.98
1 Week
66.17
increased by 5.88
1 Month
85.30
increased by 25.01
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 11:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 15403 trading days (~61.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8690 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1623 | 14.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8377 | 75.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0710 | -2.28** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
15403 days
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