Yamashin-Filter Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
93.25
decreased by 3.99
1 Week
88.09
decreased by 9.15
1 Month
88.33
decreased by 8.91
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2014 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5824 trading days (~23.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8686 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1636 | 11.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8363 | 59.53*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0612 | -1.62 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5824 days
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