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Yamashin-Filter Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

63.03

decreased by 7.25

1 Week

66.18

decreased by 4.10

1 Month

83.38

increased by 13.10

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Yamashin-Filter Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 8, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 15403 trading days (~61.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8690
5.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1623
14.62***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8377
75.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0710
-2.28**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

15403 days