Skip to main content
V-Lab

Yamashin-Filter Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026

1 Day

99.74

decreased by 17.52

1 Week

108.51

decreased by 8.75

1 Month

90.46

decreased by 26.80

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Yamashin-Filter Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 8, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 15068 trading days (~59.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8686
5.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1628
14.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8372
75.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0703
-2.25**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

15068 days