V-Lab
Yamashin-Filter Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
94.16
decreased by 11.71
1 Week
94.06
decreased by 11.81
1 Month
90.15
decreased by 15.72
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1217 trading days (~4.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 199% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1598 | 5.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0627 | 18.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8742 | 367.15*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1250 | 19.46*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1217 days
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