V-Lab
Tenaris SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
442.53
decreased by 28.24
1 Week
428.84
decreased by 41.93
1 Month
390.60
decreased by 80.17
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 201 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 252% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7406 | 8.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0303 | 15.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9282 | 589.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0761 | 16.25*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
201 days
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