V-Lab
Tenaris SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
355.51
decreased by 16.08
1 Week
385.48
increased by 13.89
1 Month
385.98
increased by 14.39
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 10:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2002 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 199 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 249% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7405 | 9.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 15.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9282 | 588.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0758 | 16.15*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
199 days
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