Tenaris SA Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
356.08
decreased by 2.65
1 Week
386.54
increased by 27.81
1 Month
449.75
increased by 91.02
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 01:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2002 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 201 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 250% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7418 | 8.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0305 | 15.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9280 | 587.32*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0762 | 16.22*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
201 days
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