V-Lab
Tenaris SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
410.66
decreased by 25.42
1 Week
410.96
decreased by 25.12
1 Month
382.17
decreased by 53.91
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0398 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0856 | 13.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9144 | 143.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0092 | -0.30 |
| γ2 | 0.0076 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
34657 days
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