V-Lab
Tenaris SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
565.09
decreased by 46.64
1 Week
609.62
decreased by 2.11
1 Month
439.96
decreased by 171.77
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 22359 trading days (~88.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~22359 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0427 | 7.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0853 | 14.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9146 | 150.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0036 | -0.59 |
1.000
Persistence22359d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0427 | 7.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0853 | 14.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9146 | 150.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0036 | -0.59 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
22359 days
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