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Tenaris SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

410.66

decreased by 25.42

1 Week

410.96

decreased by 25.12

1 Month

382.17

decreased by 53.91

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tenaris SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 17, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0398
7.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0856
13.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9144
143.45***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-0.0092
-0.30
γ20.0076
0.19

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

34657 days