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Tenaris SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

565.09

decreased by 46.64

1 Week

609.62

decreased by 2.11

1 Month

439.96

decreased by 171.77

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Tenaris SA ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 17, 2002 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 22359 trading days (~88.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~22359 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0427
7.19***
αARCH0.0853
14.04***
βGARCH0.9146
150.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0036
-0.59

1.000

Persistence

22359d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0427
7.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0853
14.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9146
150.36***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0036
-0.59

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

22359 days