V-Lab
Tenaris SA Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
323.78
decreased by 8.24
1 Week
338.97
increased by 6.95
1 Month
354.18
increased by 22.16
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0401 | 7.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0854 | 12.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9146 | 133.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.0102 | -0.10 |
| γ2 | 0.0022 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | 0.0061 | 0.11 |
| γ4 | -0.0029 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
34657 days
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