V-Lab
Tenaris SA ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
406.31
1 Week
401.02
1 Month
374.54
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2002 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0719 | 8.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9183 | 333.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0036 | 0.16 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 4.07*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9947 | 6.45*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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