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Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
10,204.45
1 Week
10,246.69
1 Month
9,822.14
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 6, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1175 | 53.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8737 | 410.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0051 | 4.30*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 14,621.3500 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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