V-Lab
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
11,318.91
1 Week
10,374.70
1 Month
8,451.54
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 6, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 54% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.94 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 17.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8975 | 297.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0438 | 5.43*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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