V-Lab
Hoegh Autoliners Asa Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
184.20
increased by 9.14
1 Week
169.37
decreased by 5.69
1 Month
191.01
increased by 15.95
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 10:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 123 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 224% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~123 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 224% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.3847 | 1.72* |
| αARCH | 0.0452 | 1.92* |
| βGARCH | 0.8984 | 63.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.1014 | 2.13** |
0.994
Persistence123d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.3847 | 1.72* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0452 | 1.92* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8984 | 63.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1014 | 2.13** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
123 days
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