Hoegh Autoliners Asa Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
206.64
decreased by 5.31
1 Week
222.99
increased by 11.04
1 Month
199.76
decreased by 12.19
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 18, 2026 at 01:20 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2021 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 223% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 223% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.4942 | 1.76* |
| αARCH | 0.0444 | 1.90* |
| βGARCH | 0.8999 | 64.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.0991 | 2.09** |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.4942 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0444 | 1.90* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8999 | 64.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0991 | 2.09** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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