V-Lab
Hoegh Autoliners Asa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
179.62
decreased by 2.45
1 Week
168.81
decreased by 13.26
1 Month
188.66
increased by 6.59
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 10:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8318 | 4.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.1226 | 7.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8692 | 52.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0911 | -1.21 |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8318 | 4.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1226 | 7.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8692 | 52.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0911 | -1.21 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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