Hoegh Autoliners Asa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
266.16
increased by 48.06
1 Week
225.61
increased by 7.51
1 Month
226.80
increased by 8.70
Analysis last updated: Sunday, November 8, 2026 at 01:13 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2021 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8610 | 4.57*** |
| αARCH | 0.1188 | 7.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8727 | 53.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0541 | -0.79 |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8610 | 4.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1188 | 7.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8727 | 53.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0541 | -0.79 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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