V-Lab
Hoegh Autoliners Asa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
197.12
increased by 43.83
1 Week
162.50
increased by 9.21
1 Month
226.84
increased by 73.55
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 01:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8256 | 4.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.1239 | 7.01*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8681 | 51.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0924 | -1.17 |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8256 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1239 | 7.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8681 | 51.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0924 | -1.17 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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