V-Lab
Chitec Technology Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
567.84
increased by 186.32
1 Week
462.00
increased by 80.48
1 Month
859.92
increased by 478.40
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 16, 2010 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.5852 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4402 | 9.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5519 | 11.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.8167 | 0.79 |
| γ2 | -1.2443 | -0.75 |
| γ3 | 2.2652 | 1.42 |
| γ4 | -4.9811 | -2.51** |
| γ5 | 6.7788 | 3.36*** |
| γ6 | -21.1629 | -3.39*** |
| γ7 | 46.3628 | 3.23*** |
| γ8 | -42.2033 | -3.14*** |
| γ9 | 12.8096 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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