Jiangxi Ganneng Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
184.97
increased by 38.43
1 Week
143.78
decreased by 2.76
1 Month
103.91
decreased by 42.63
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~77016 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7652 | 0.01 |
| αARCH | 0.2491 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.7509 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0662 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.5392 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence77016d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7652 | 0.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2491 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7509 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0662 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -0.5392 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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