Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
292.82
decreased by 6.56
1 Week
282.21
decreased by 17.17
1 Month
228.30
decreased by 71.08
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 492 trading days (~2.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 133% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~492 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 133% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8439 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.0991 | 5.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8336 | 79.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.1318 | 4.33*** |
0.999
Persistence492d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8439 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0991 | 5.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8336 | 79.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1318 | 4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
492 days
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