V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 27th, 2026
1 Day
225.36
decreased by 9.29
1 Week
277.49
increased by 42.84
1 Month
261.38
increased by 26.73
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 27, 2026 at 06:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 536 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 132% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8432 | 7.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 22.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8338 | 318.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1314 | 17.22*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
536 days
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