V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
189.73
decreased by 21.77
1 Week
233.02
increased by 21.52
1 Month
263.75
increased by 52.25
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 518 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 132% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8289 | 7.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0992 | 22.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8338 | 318.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1313 | 17.19*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
518 days
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