V-Lab
Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
240.98
decreased by 10.92
1 Week
268.38
increased by 16.48
1 Month
261.51
increased by 9.61
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 541 trading days (~2.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 132% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8317 | 7.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0995 | 22.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8337 | 318.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1310 | 17.12*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
541 days
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