Phoenix Shipping Wuhan Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
343.78
increased by 42.44
1 Week
326.80
increased by 25.46
1 Month
298.27
decreased by 3.07
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 1993 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 465 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 133% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~465 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 133% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8399 | 1.83* |
| αARCH | 0.0987 | 5.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8340 | 80.11*** |
| γleverage | 0.1315 | 4.33*** |
0.999
Persistence465d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8399 | 1.83* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0987 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8340 | 80.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1315 | 4.33*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
465 days
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