V-Lab
Shandong Xinneng Taishan Power Generation Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
123.85
1 Week
129.74
1 Month
204.20
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 9, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 47% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1827 | 10.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7743 | 145.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0860 | 1.96** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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