V-Lab
Shanghai Hi-Tech Control System Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
159.09
decreased by 30.18
1 Week
153.43
decreased by 35.84
1 Month
262.42
increased by 73.15
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 07:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 305 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 185% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8248 | 11.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1119 | 26.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7824 | 432.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2070 | 29.23*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
305 days
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