Shanghai Hi-Tech Control System Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
296.10
decreased by 57.93
1 Week
296.10
decreased by 57.93
1 Month
294.08
decreased by 59.95
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2007 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8005 | 6.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.2361 | 16.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7377 | 57.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -0.93 |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8005 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2361 | 16.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7377 | 57.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0026 | -0.93 |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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