Shanghai Hi-Tech Control System Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
121.50
decreased by 29.70
1 Week
129.01
decreased by 22.19
1 Month
216.46
increased by 65.26
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 16, 2007 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7985 | 6.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.2365 | 16.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7370 | 56.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0027 | -0.96 |
0.973
Persistence26d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7985 | 6.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2365 | 16.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7370 | 56.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0027 | -0.96 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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