Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
11,658.25
decreased by 1,120.05
1 Week
13,663.98
increased by 885.68
1 Month
14,659.81
increased by 1,881.51
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 6, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~134 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2333 | 4.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.1135 | 7.69*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8814 | 57.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0018 | -0.12 |
0.995
Persistence134d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2333 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1135 | 7.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8814 | 57.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0018 | -0.12 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
134 days
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