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Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

11,658.25

decreased by 1,120.05

1 Week

13,663.98

increased by 885.68

1 Month

14,659.81

increased by 1,881.51

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 6, 2015 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 134 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~134 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2333
4.84***
αARCH0.1135
7.69***
βGARCH0.8814
57.04***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0018
-0.12

0.995

Persistence

134d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2333
4.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1135
7.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8814
57.04***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0018
-0.12

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

134 days