Stakk Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
341,440.20
1 Week
406,969.70
1 Month
335,222.15
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1169 trading days (~4.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.8859 | 0.04 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3636 | 1.77* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -0.01 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0339 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3866 | 0.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6134 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1169 days
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