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Nanshan Aluminium Internatio ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

1,229.21

increased by 15.62

1 Week

1,215.63

increased by 2.04

1 Month

1,104.40

decreased by 109.19

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Nanshan Aluminium Internatio ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 25, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

86
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0448
1.28
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9776
362.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0448
-0.52
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0001
1.18
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0092
1.19
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
1.25

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days