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Trisul Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

18,949.17

decreased by 855.46

1 Week

19,732.02

decreased by 72.61

1 Month

18,031.09

decreased by 1,773.54

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Trisul Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0882
4.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9231
268.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0350
-0.98
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0012
1.97**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9955
2,585.71***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

112 days