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Trisul Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

16,245.25

decreased by 500.05

1 Week

16,863.41

increased by 118.11

1 Month

18,469.82

increased by 1,724.52

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trisul Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

96
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0883
4.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9231
268.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0350
-0.98
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0012
1.97**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9955
2,585.71***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

113 days