V-Lab
Trisul Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18,949.17
1 Week
19,732.02
1 Month
18,031.09
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 02:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0882 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9231 | 268.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0350 | -0.98 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0012 | 1.97** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9955 | 2,585.71*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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