How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	106
αARCH	0.0806	7.74***
βGARCH	0.9301	113.11***
γleverage	-0.0806	-6.29***
λ₁tau intercept	0.3189	0.35
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0263	1.47
λ₃tau persistence	0.1292	5.26***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	106
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0806	7.74***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9301	113.11***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.0806	-6.29***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.3189	0.35
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0263	1.47
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.1292	5.26***

V-Lab

Trisul Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Trisul Sa Analyses