V-Lab
Trisul Sa ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
19,737.02
1 Week
19,780.53
1 Month
18,106.83
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 112 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 96 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0883 | 4.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9231 | 268.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0350 | -0.98 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0012 | 1.97** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9955 | 2,585.71*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
112 days
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