V-Lab
Trisul Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
15,362.15
decreased by 635.16
1 Week
16,064.24
increased by 66.93
1 Month
18,122.12
increased by 2,124.81
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 44 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5774 | 1.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1098 | 5.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8746 | 47.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.6642 | -1.51 |
| γ2 | 4.2478 | 1.52 |
| γ3 | -1.9748 | -1.25 |
| γ4 | 0.9151 | 1.01 |
| γ5 | -2.5175 | -4.37*** |
| γ6 | 3.1977 | 7.34*** |
| γ7 | -0.8124 | -2.13** |
| γ8 | -0.5031 | -1.56 |
| γ9 | -0.0410 | -0.15 |
| γ10 | 0.5224 | 1.35 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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