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Trisul Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

11,531.31

increased by 215.01

1 Week

12,135.52

increased by 819.22

1 Month

12,203.19

increased by 886.89

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 12:13 AM UTC

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graph of Trisul Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.6029
1.59
αARCH0.1079
5.04***
βGARCH0.8778
48.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.6202
-1.46
γ24.1858
1.47
γ3-1.9198
-1.19
γ40.8141
0.86
γ5-2.4795
-4.00***
γ63.3809
7.18***
γ7-1.0575
-2.62***
γ8-0.4572
-1.34
γ90.0755
0.25
γ100.3108
0.79

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6029
1.59
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1079
5.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8778
48.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-2.6202
-1.46
γ24.1858
1.47
γ3-1.9198
-1.19
γ40.8141
0.86
γ5-2.4795
-4.00***
γ63.3809
7.18***
γ7-1.0575
-2.62***
γ8-0.4572
-1.34
γ90.0755
0.25
γ100.3108
0.79

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days