V-Lab
Trisul Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
11,531.31
increased by 215.01
1 Week
12,135.52
increased by 819.22
1 Month
12,203.19
increased by 886.89
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 12:13 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 48 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6029 | 1.59 |
| αARCH | 0.1079 | 5.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8778 | 48.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.6202 | -1.46 |
| γ2 | 4.1858 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | -1.9198 | -1.19 |
| γ4 | 0.8141 | 0.86 |
| γ5 | -2.4795 | -4.00*** |
| γ6 | 3.3809 | 7.18*** |
| γ7 | -1.0575 | -2.62*** |
| γ8 | -0.4572 | -1.34 |
| γ9 | 0.0755 | 0.25 |
| γ10 | 0.3108 | 0.79 |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6029 | 1.59 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1079 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8778 | 48.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.6202 | -1.46 |
| γ2 | 4.1858 | 1.47 |
| γ3 | -1.9198 | -1.19 |
| γ4 | 0.8141 | 0.86 |
| γ5 | -2.4795 | -4.00*** |
| γ6 | 3.3809 | 7.18*** |
| γ7 | -1.0575 | -2.62*** |
| γ8 | -0.4572 | -1.34 |
| γ9 | 0.0755 | 0.25 |
| γ10 | 0.3108 | 0.79 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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