V-Lab
Trisul Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
20,992.71
increased by 2,267.28
1 Week
19,977.83
increased by 1,252.40
1 Month
17,785.52
decreased by 939.91
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 45 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5820 | 1.55 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1092 | 5.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8756 | 47.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -2.6568 | -1.50 |
| γ2 | 4.2377 | 1.51 |
| γ3 | -1.9636 | -1.23 |
| γ4 | 0.8913 | 0.97 |
| γ5 | -2.5086 | -4.28*** |
| γ6 | 3.2434 | 7.32*** |
| γ7 | -0.8756 | -2.27** |
| γ8 | -0.4840 | -1.50 |
| γ9 | -0.0318 | -0.11 |
| γ10 | 0.5426 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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