V-Lab
ASTA Energy Solutions AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
42,450.17
increased by 11,236.36
1 Week
32,065.93
increased by 852.12
1 Month
31,473.21
increased by 259.40
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0977 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1596 | 1.93* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7413 | 6.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -8.3224 | -1.50 |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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