ASTA Energy Solutions AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
28,675.70
increased by 476.40
1 Week
25,344.82
decreased by 2,854.48
1 Month
26,197.22
decreased by 2,002.08
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1861 | 6.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.1459 | 2.08** |
| βGARCH | 0.7569 | 7.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.6694 | -2.00** |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1861 | 6.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1459 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7569 | 7.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.6694 | -2.00** |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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