V-Lab
ASTA Energy Solutions AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
18,720.41
decreased by 2,356.68
1 Week
21,710.03
increased by 632.94
1 Month
25,148.43
increased by 4,071.34
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 09:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0645 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1407 | 1.84* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7542 | 6.95*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -10.2320 | -2.42** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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