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ASTA Energy Solutions AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

21,049.82

decreased by 3,541.57

1 Week

23,321.83

decreased by 1,269.56

1 Month

25,286.25

increased by 694.86

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of ASTA Energy Solutions AG ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 30, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2080
6.61***
αARCH0.1461
2.16**
βGARCH0.7573
8.48***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-5.2960
-2.26**

0.903

Persistence

7d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2080
6.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1461
2.16**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7573
8.48***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-5.2960
-2.26**

Persistence:

0.903

Half-life:

7 days