V-Lab
ASTA Energy Solutions AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
27,599.21
decreased by 1,567.21
1 Week
26,346.73
decreased by 2,819.69
1 Month
22,708.57
decreased by 6,457.85
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1453 | 6.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.1510 | 2.09** |
| βGARCH | 0.7436 | 7.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -7.4853 | -2.39** |
0.895
Persistence6d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1453 | 6.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1510 | 2.09** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7436 | 7.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -7.4853 | -2.39** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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