ASTA Energy Solutions AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
29,562.46
increased by 6,494.25
1 Week
26,647.11
increased by 3,578.90
1 Month
32,589.35
increased by 9,521.14
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 30, 2026 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0044 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1547 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7463 | 6.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -13.3713 | -1.68* |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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