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V-Lab

Value Convergence Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

19,767.27

decreased by 710.80

1 Week

23,951.68

increased by 3,473.61

1 Month

51,680.49

increased by 31,202.42

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Value Convergence Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 56 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

29.9356
3.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2057
6.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7820
24.19***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.6515
1.26
γ20.2092
0.26
γ3-1.8004
-2.83***
γ41.7396
3.56***
γ5-1.0259
-2.42**
γ60.4476
1.07
γ70.0733
0.12
γ8-2.3457
-2.21**

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days