Skip to main content
V-Lab

Value Convergence Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

57,049.48

increased by 968.17

1 Week

64,085.96

increased by 8,004.65

1 Month

28,070.16

decreased by 28,011.15

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Value Convergence Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

13.0769
4.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2125
6.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7796
25.56***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.7051
-1.64
γ24.3094
2.06**
γ3-3.7220
-2.03**
γ40.8599
0.82
γ50.9519
1.08
γ6-1.0521
-1.46
γ71.0298
1.41
γ8-0.9774
-1.07
γ90.8085
0.74
γ10-5.5588
-2.06**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days