V-Lab
Value Convergence Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
57,049.48
increased by 968.17
1 Week
64,085.96
increased by 8,004.65
1 Month
28,070.16
decreased by 28,011.15
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.0769 | 4.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2125 | 6.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7796 | 25.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.7051 | -1.64 |
| γ2 | 4.3094 | 2.06** |
| γ3 | -3.7220 | -2.03** |
| γ4 | 0.8599 | 0.82 |
| γ5 | 0.9519 | 1.08 |
| γ6 | -1.0521 | -1.46 |
| γ7 | 1.0298 | 1.41 |
| γ8 | -0.9774 | -1.07 |
| γ9 | 0.8085 | 0.74 |
| γ10 | -5.5588 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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