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Value Convergence Holdings Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

683,373.30

decreased by 21,622.80

1 Week

728,468.70

increased by 23,472.60

1 Month

916,527.87

increased by 211,531.77

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Value Convergence Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 15, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 205% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.17
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0154
8.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9687
494.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0317
6.92***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days