V-Lab
Value Convergence Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
114,969.80
1 Week
119,926.90
1 Month
120,895.34
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 09:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 15, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1685 | 0.40 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 129.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1685 | -0.81 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 0.45 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.42 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8628 | 17.65*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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