V-Lab
Polytronics Technology Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
238.84
1 Week
213.58
1 Month
262.72
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 457 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.1577 | 18.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8453 | 103.58*** |
| γleverage | -0.0092 | -1.46 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0003 | 0.24 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9993 | 587.50*** |
0.998
Persistence457d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1577 | 18.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8453 | 103.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0092 | -1.46 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0003 | 0.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9993 | 587.50*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
457 days
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