V-Lab
Polytronics Technology Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
1,843.84
increased by 422.44
1 Week
1,340.16
decreased by 81.24
1 Month
759.58
decreased by 661.82
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0066 | 0.85 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2345 | 0.10 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7655 | 0.33 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0390 | -0.80 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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