V-Lab
Polytronics Technology Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
706.37
decreased by 135.03
1 Week
894.38
increased by 52.98
1 Month
1,284.63
increased by 443.23
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:11 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5458 trading days (~21.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9367 | 2.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2119 | 1.67* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7880 | 6.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -7.8941 | -1.29 |
| γ2 | 14.9138 | 1.22 |
| γ3 | -9.6426 | -1.11 |
| γ4 | 2.5361 | 0.98 |
| γ5 | 0.1192 | 0.31 |
| γ6 | -0.0398 | -0.14 |
| γ7 | -0.2218 | -0.78 |
| γ8 | 0.6326 | 1.84* |
| γ9 | -0.5334 | -1.13 |
| γ10 | -0.1384 | -0.25 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5458 days
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