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Trisul Sa Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

19,271.06

increased by 1,937.84

1 Week

17,905.73

increased by 572.51

1 Month

16,222.84

decreased by 1,110.38

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trisul Sa ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 19, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.03
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0783
6.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9366
746.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0297
-1.52

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days