V-Lab
Trisul Sa Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
19,271.06
increased by 1,937.84
1 Week
17,905.73
increased by 572.51
1 Month
16,222.84
decreased by 1,110.38
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 08:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 19, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.03 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0783 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9366 | 746.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0297 | -1.52 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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