V-Lab
Stakk Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
973,928.30
1 Week
1,036,920.06
1 Month
1,335,389.06
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.9983 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0024 | 1.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9687 | 732.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0578 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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