V-Lab
Stakk Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
705,624.60
increased by 672,636.93
1 Week
180,296.21
increased by 147,308.54
1 Month
113,484.28
increased by 80,496.61
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2004 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1547 trading days (~6.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9757 | 1.97** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1451 | 5.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8544 | 31.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0010 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 1.9429 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | -8.2283 | -1.78* |
| γ4 | 10.1868 | 3.54*** |
| γ5 | 1.7930 | 0.46 |
| γ6 | -15.7080 | -3.77*** |
| γ7 | 18.1579 | 6.52*** |
| γ8 | -10.7820 | -5.39*** |
| γ9 | 0.6757 | 0.36 |
| γ10 | -2.6895 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1547 days
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