V-Lab
Hongmian Zhihui Science And Technology Innovation Co Ltd Guangzhou Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
204.25
decreased by 26.40
1 Week
244.80
increased by 14.15
1 Month
246.15
increased by 15.50
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1034 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0631 | 3.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2526 | 18.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7467 | 55.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2634 | -1.06 |
| γ2 | -0.3288 | -0.43 |
| γ3 | 2.2471 | 1.19 |
| γ4 | -2.3617 | -1.12 |
| γ5 | -0.8091 | -0.62 |
| γ6 | 3.9337 | 2.07** |
| γ7 | -3.8614 | -1.85* |
| γ8 | 1.9432 | 1.65* |
| γ9 | -0.8875 | -1.62 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1034 days
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