V-Lab
Hongmian Zhihui Science And Technology Innovation Co Ltd Guangzhou Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
127.34
decreased by 6.64
1 Week
149.81
increased by 15.83
1 Month
195.56
increased by 61.58
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1993 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 898 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0974 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2451 | 17.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7542 | 52.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1315 | -0.79 |
| γ2 | -0.1080 | -0.36 |
| γ3 | 1.2044 | 2.79*** |
| γ4 | -1.8940 | -3.08*** |
| γ5 | 1.1652 | 1.87* |
| γ6 | -0.1409 | -0.32 |
| γ7 | -0.2052 | -1.26 |
| γ8 | 0.1884 | 1.36 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
898 days
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