V-Lab
Hongmian Zhihui Science And Technology Innovation Co Ltd Guangzhou ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
134.28
1 Week
158.53
1 Month
207.63
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1993 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1037 trading days (~4.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2698 | 12.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7489 | 43.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0387 | -1.94* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9995 | 124.78*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1037 days
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