V-Lab
Hongmian Zhihui Science And Technology Innovation Co Ltd Guangzhou ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
264.57
1 Week
312.22
1 Month
312.17
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1993 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2831 | 2.16** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7452 | 199.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0659 | -0.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 7.2831 | 3.09*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9966 | 1,071.58*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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