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Hongmian Zhihui Science And Technology Innovation Co Ltd Guangzhou Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

160.21

decreased by 32.49

1 Week

142.77

decreased by 49.93

1 Month

165.82

decreased by 26.88

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Hongmian Zhihui Science And Technology Innovation Co Ltd Guangzhou ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 8, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 185% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~693147 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 185% more after negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.66
αARCH0.1037
2.26**
βGARCH0.8005
42.29***
γleverage0.1916
2.58***

1.000

Persistence

693147d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.66
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1037
2.26**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8005
42.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1916
2.58***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days