V-Lab
Hongmian Zhihui Science And Technology Innovation Co Ltd Guangzhou Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
160.21
1 Week
142.77
1 Month
165.82
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 8, 1993 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 185% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.66 |
| αARCH | 0.1037 | 2.26** |
| βGARCH | 0.8005 | 42.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.1916 | 2.58*** |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.66 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 2.26** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8005 | 42.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1916 | 2.58*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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