V-Lab
Yamashin-Filter Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
104.54
1 Week
111.55
1 Month
92.41
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2014 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 473 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1323 | 4.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8580 | 315.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0165 | 0.24 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 3.88*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 4.03*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
473 days
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