Yamashin-Filter Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
94.71
1 Week
90.15
1 Month
90.01
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 8, 2014 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 160 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1422 | 11.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8496 | 193.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0077 | 0.28 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.45 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.9727 | 0.44 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
160 days
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