V-Lab
Kosei Securities Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
5,245.08
increased by 49.58
1 Week
5,715.12
increased by 519.62
1 Month
7,980.32
increased by 2,784.82
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1002 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1261 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8739 | 5.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0012 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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