V-Lab
Kosei Securities Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
5,195.76
1 Week
5,692.62
1 Month
8,222.55
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 5, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1436 | 0.92 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8664 | 287.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1436 | -0.42 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.83 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1818 | 6.48*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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