Apex Biotechnology Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
2,602.10
decreased by 254.28
1 Week
2,674.63
decreased by 181.75
1 Month
3,141.61
increased by 285.23
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2001 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 270 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 109% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~270 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 109% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7045 | 2.96*** |
| αARCH | 0.0888 | 5.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8605 | 111.92*** |
| γleverage | 0.0964 | 3.73*** |
0.997
Persistence270d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7045 | 2.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0888 | 5.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8605 | 111.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0964 | 3.73*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
270 days
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