V-Lab
Raccoon Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
210.58
decreased by 12.49
1 Week
196.54
decreased by 26.53
1 Month
173.29
decreased by 49.78
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2006 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2493 trading days (~9.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2493 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8862 | 5.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1720 | 19.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8277 | 91.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0084 | 1.49 |
1.000
Persistence2493d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8862 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1720 | 19.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8277 | 91.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0084 | 1.49 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2493 days
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