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Raccoon Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

151.46

decreased by 30.17

1 Week

179.83

decreased by 1.80

1 Month

208.53

increased by 26.90

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Raccoon Holdings Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 10, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9120 trading days (~36.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~9120 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8508
6.06***
αARCH0.1972
16.57***
βGARCH0.8027
67.40***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.3037
-3.97***
γ21.4590
3.06***
γ3-0.6383
-2.08**
γ41.1627
3.18***
γ5-1.1379
-3.38***
γ60.8640
3.56***
γ7-0.6105
-2.48**
γ80.3706
0.95

1.000

Persistence

9120d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8508
6.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1972
16.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8027
67.40***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.3037
-3.97***
γ21.4590
3.06***
γ3-0.6383
-2.08**
γ41.1627
3.18***
γ5-1.1379
-3.38***
γ60.8640
3.56***
γ7-0.6105
-2.48**
γ80.3706
0.95

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

9120 days