Raccoon Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026
1 Day
206.61
decreased by 1.14
1 Week
189.57
decreased by 18.18
1 Month
191.66
decreased by 16.09
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2006 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2484 trading days (~9.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2484 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8869 | 5.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.1718 | 19.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8279 | 92.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0085 | 1.54 |
1.000
Persistence2484d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8869 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1718 | 19.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8279 | 92.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0085 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2484 days
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