V-Lab
Raccoon Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
151.46
decreased by 30.17
1 Week
179.83
decreased by 1.80
1 Month
208.53
increased by 26.90
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2006 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 9120 trading days (~36.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~9120 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8508 | 6.06*** |
| αARCH | 0.1972 | 16.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8027 | 67.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.3037 | -3.97*** |
| γ2 | 1.4590 | 3.06*** |
| γ3 | -0.6383 | -2.08** |
| γ4 | 1.1627 | 3.18*** |
| γ5 | -1.1379 | -3.38*** |
| γ6 | 0.8640 | 3.56*** |
| γ7 | -0.6105 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.3706 | 0.95 |
1.000
Persistence9120d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8508 | 6.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1972 | 16.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8027 | 67.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.3037 | -3.97*** |
| γ2 | 1.4590 | 3.06*** |
| γ3 | -0.6383 | -2.08** |
| γ4 | 1.1627 | 3.18*** |
| γ5 | -1.1379 | -3.38*** |
| γ6 | 0.8640 | 3.56*** |
| γ7 | -0.6105 | -2.48** |
| γ8 | 0.3706 | 0.95 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
9120 days
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