V-Lab
Raccoon Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
149.43
decreased by 5.05
1 Week
152.41
decreased by 2.07
1 Month
155.65
increased by 1.17
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 10, 2006 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2493 trading days (~9.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8853 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1720 | 19.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8277 | 91.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0081 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2493 days
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