V-Lab
Guangdong Baolihua New Energy Stock Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
81.20
1 Week
69.59
1 Month
78.76
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 1997 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 83% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 7.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1389 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8036 | 60.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1150 | 12.69*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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